BullWalletBitcoin Research
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The Bitcoin market, measured every day.

Price, on-chain activity and macro context in one free daily report, with an explanation beside every chart. Research only: no account, no wallet connection.

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How far below its peak is Bitcoin?
% Down from All-Time High
Two stacked panels from September 2014 to 18 October 2026. Upper panel: Bitcoin's daily closing price in US dollars, with each running high marked by a dashed line. Lower panel: the distance below that high in percent, filled in red, with guide lines at minus 10, minus 30 and minus 60 percent. The deepest falls, past 80 percent, came in 2015, 2018 to 2019 and 2022.
Daily closing price with each running high marked, and the distance below that high. Zero is a new high. Distance from the peak only; not a measure of value and not a forecast.
Prices through
Captured 2026-10-18

Explore Bitcoin beyond the price.

Three examples from the report: price behaviour, on-chain measures and the wider economic backdrop.

Historical previews. Each example shows its own data dates.

Price and performance

Put market moves in perspective.

Explore returns, volatility and drawdowns across Bitcoin's history.

Historical volatility: 30, 60 and 180 days

Two stacked panels from 2014-09-17 to 2026-10-17. Upper panel: Bitcoin's daily closing price in US dollars. Lower panel: annualised historical volatility in percent over rolling 30-day, 60-day and 180-day windows, three lines that rise together in turbulent periods and fall in calm ones.

Annualised historical volatility shows how much daily returns varied over the report's 30-, 60- and 180-day windows. It does not forecast the next move.

Data through: Period shown: 2014-09-17 to 2026-10-17Captured: 2026-10-18

On-chain activity

Look beyond the market price.

Examine network activity, supply and holder measures, with explanations alongside the charts.

Bitcoin price and Hash Price

Bitcoin's daily closing price in US dollars on a logarithmic left axis, and Hash Price, miners' daily revenue per unit of computing power in US dollars, on a logarithmic right axis, both from 2014-09-17 to 2026-10-15.

Hash Price measures miners' daily revenue per unit of computing power. It is shown alongside Bitcoin's price on separate logarithmic scales; it is not a measure of an individual miner's profitability.

BTC price through: Hash Price through: Period shown: 2014-09-17 to 2026-10-15Captured: 2026-10-18

Macro context

See the wider backdrop.

Explore US macroeconomic series alongside Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin price and the Federal Funds Rate

Bitcoin's price in US dollars on a logarithmic left axis and the monthly Federal Funds Rate in percent on a linear right axis, shown from 2014-09-17 to 2026-09-01. The two series use separate scales; the comparison does not establish causation.

Bitcoin's price and the monthly Federal Funds Rate over their overlapping observation period, on separate axes. Their movement together does not establish that one caused the other.

Rate: monthly, percentBTC data through: Rate observation through: Period shown: 2014-09-17 to 2026-09-01Captured: 2026-10-18

View all five research areas
Price and performance

How Bitcoin has moved: returns, drawdowns and volatility.

Price history, distance from the all-time high, 30, 60 and 180-day volatility, days since a given fall or rise, running return, returns by purchase month, quarter and year.

Cycle measures

Where models fitted to Bitcoin's own past place the market, with their limits stated.

Composite risk score, 200-week moving-average heatmap, 2-year MA multiplier, Pi Cycle Top, golden-ratio multiplier, rainbow chart, bull-market support band, power trend line, past cycles’ peak and bottom returns. Several share the same price inputs; they are not independent evidence.

On-chain activity

What the network data shows: activity, supply and holder measures.

MVRV Z-score, short- and long-term-holder MVRV, thermocap, hash price, supply and address counts by wallet size (addresses, not people), realised profit and loss, valuation models, network and miner health.

Macro context

The wider backdrop: US macro series and supported market-structure measures.

US macroeconomic series as context for the price; market-structure measures including the spot ETFs. Co-movement is shown as such, not as cause.

Sentiment

Two published sentiment series, each against price.

A published crypto fear-and-greed index and web search interest.

Who publishes it

BullWallet publishes the report and this site. The report is built by an automated pipeline from stored data and reviewed by its author; the site does not sell, hold or transact anything.

Write to info@bullwallet.com.

How to read it

Observations are shown as received. Indicator values are arithmetic on them. The cycle models are curves fitted to Bitcoin’s short history and have never been tested against outcomes; a score from them is a reading of where a measure sits, not a probability. The written readings are the author’s opinion about today, not a forecast. Nothing in the report is a personal recommendation or advice on crypto-assets.

BullWallet is a report, not a wallet

Nothing here holds, exchanges, transfers or advises on crypto-assets for anyone. There is no account to open and no wallet to connect. The form is the only thing on this site that asks for anything.

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